S&P 500

Monthly average of the S&P 500 index. Broad proxy for equity market performance and investor confidence.

Source: FRED

Latest reading

7.6K+25.8% YoY

June 2026

25.8%

-30.0%4.00%10.0%30.0%

About this gauge

This gauge shows the S&P 500's year-over-year % change using monthly averages — a better economic signal than the raw index level. The most recent data point reflects the average closing price for the latest complete month. Sustainable expansion (4–10% YoY) reflects earnings growth in line with the real economy. Below 0% is a contraction signal. Above 18% YoY typically reflects liquidity-fueled or speculative conditions disconnected from underlying fundamentals.

< −15% YoYCrash / contraction

−15% to 0%Negative — contraction signal

0% to 4%Weak / sluggish growth

4% to 10%Sustainable expansion ✓

10% to 18%Strong but getting stretched

> 18% YoYLiquidity-fueled / speculative